I study defense policy, strategic stability, and the relationship between human decision-making and institutional design in conflict. My methods combine archival research and primary source analysis with quantitative and geospatial tools. Current research address nuclear-conventional entanglement, space-based command and control vulnerabilities, and escalation dynamics across warfighting domains. My broader research interests span the Mongol Empire and Asian statecraft, Norse and Viking traditions, and American military history from the Revolution through the Cold War.
Articles, Analyses, Presentations, & Workshops
"Deterrence in Orbit: PLA Counterspace Doctrine, JADO, and the Vulnerability of Space-Based Nuclear Command and Control" by Alyssa I. Agard
This article examines whether Joint All-Domain Operations (JADO) accounts for the nuclear escalation risks that PLA counterspace capabilities pose to dual-use space-based NC3 infrastructure. It introduces the 'space-nuclear firewall' as an analytical concept describing JADO's implicit assumption that conventional space operations and nuclear command-and-control functions can be managed within a unified domain framework without triggering escalation. The analysis argues that this assumed separation is operationally fictitious, and that JADO's emphasis on cross-domain convergence inadvertently deepens the entanglement problem. The article proposes a dedicated Space-Nuclear Integration Cell within the JADO planning architecture to address this structural vulnerability.This manuscript is currently in development. If you are a researcher, practitioner, or analyst working in nuclear deterrence, space security, or joint doctrine, I welcome requests to review the manuscript and provide feedback. Please reach out via email or LinkedIn.
Articles, Analyses, Presentations, & Workshops
PREPRINT | "The Intelligentized Security Dilemma:
Systems Destruction Warfare, Technological Entanglement, and the Erosion of Strategic Stability" by Alyssa I. Agard
View Here
This article argues that the convergence of the PLA's Systems Destruction Warfare doctrine with artificial intelligence, quantum sensing, hypersonic weapons, and counterspace capabilities creates an 'intelligentized' security dilemma characterized by compressed decision timelines, the entanglement of nuclear, conventional, and space architectures, and nonlinear escalation pathways that render Cold War stability models obsolete. Tracing PLA doctrinal evolution from mechanization through informatization to intelligentization, the analysis examines how each technological domain contributes to an increasingly unstable strategic environment and how these domains compound one another within a single operational framework. The article evaluates the internal frictions constraining PLA modernization and concludes that the greatest threat lies not in any single technology but in the synergistic interaction of destabilizing capabilities within a doctrine that exploits systemic vulnerabilities. It proposes domain-specific governance mechanisms tailored to the compound dynamics identified.
Workshop | Ballot, Power, and Democracy in New Jersey:
A Community Workshop on NJ Polling and Civic Participation" by Alyssa I. Agard,
Published at Agard Research Associates Inc.
Ballot, Power, and Democracy in New Jersey is a civic education workshop developed by Agard Research Associates Inc. It examines how New Jersey's county line ballot system shaped state politics for decades. The workshop draws on peer-reviewed research by Prof. Julia Sass Rubin of Rutgers University. Three presentation tracks serve general audiences, students, and English language learners.