I study defense policy, strategic stability, and the relationship between human decision-making and institutional design in conflict. My methods combine archival research and primary source analysis with quantitative and geospatial tools. Current research address nuclear-conventional entanglement, space-based command and control vulnerabilities, and escalation dynamics across warfighting domains. My broader research interests span the Mongol Empire and Asian statecraft, Norse and Viking traditions, and American military history from the Revolution through the Cold War.
Articles, Analyses, Presentations, & Workshops
MANUSCRIPT | "Coordination Tax: Doctrinal Latency, the Limits of Sensor-Shooter Compression, and Fires Clearance in Contested Battlespace" by Alyssa I. Agard
Investments in the Joint Fires Network, the Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control concept, and the broader sensor-to-shooter compression program proceed on the assumption that technical latency is the binding constraint on fires effectiveness. The fifth year of the Russo-Ukrainian War and recent Israeli Defense Forces counter-fires procedures in Northern Command operations suggest a different bound. RUSI’s documentation of Russian targeting cycles ranging from three minutes when integrated to thirty minutes when not, alongside Ukrainian line-of-contact recce-strike practice enabled by Kropyva, GIS Arta, and Delta, indicates that the operative latency is procedural rather than technical. This article advances the concept of the coordination tax, defined as doctrinal-procedural delay produced by Fire Support Coordination Measure clearance independent of network speed, and argues that at the tactical artillery and counter-battery level, conditional on adequate magazine depth and outside saturation electronic warfare environments, this tax is the dominant first-order constraint on fires effectiveness. Drawing on the doctrinal genealogy of the FSCM framework refined during the AirLand Battle era, structured comparison of paired Ukrainian and Israeli engagement cases, and process-tracing of open-source timing anchors, the article proposes a doctrinal redesign grounded in delegated clearance authority.
This manuscript is currently in development. If you are a researcher, practitioner, or analyst working in nuclear deterrence, space security, or joint doctrine, I welcome requests to review the manuscript and provide feedback. Please reach out via email or LinkedIn.
Articles, Analyses, Presentations, & Workshops
PREPRINT | "The Intelligentized Security Dilemma:
Systems Destruction Warfare, Technological Entanglement, and the Erosion of Strategic Stability" by Alyssa I. Agard
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This article argues that the convergence of the PLA's Systems Destruction Warfare doctrine with artificial intelligence, quantum sensing, hypersonic weapons, and counterspace capabilities creates an 'intelligentized' security dilemma characterized by compressed decision timelines, the entanglement of nuclear, conventional, and space architectures, and nonlinear escalation pathways that render Cold War stability models obsolete. Tracing PLA doctrinal evolution from mechanization through informatization to intelligentization, the analysis examines how each technological domain contributes to an increasingly unstable strategic environment and how these domains compound one another within a single operational framework. The article evaluates the internal frictions constraining PLA modernization and concludes that the greatest threat lies not in any single technology but in the synergistic interaction of destabilizing capabilities within a doctrine that exploits systemic vulnerabilities. It proposes domain-specific governance mechanisms tailored to the compound dynamics identified.
PREPRINT | "Deterrence in Orbit: PLA Counterspace Doctrine, JADO, and the Vulnerability of Space-Based Nuclear Command and Control" by Alyssa I. Agard
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This article examines whether Joint All-Domain Operations (JADO) accounts for the nuclear escalation risks that PLA counterspace capabilities pose to dual-use space-based NC3 infrastructure. It introduces the 'space-nuclear firewall' as an analytical concept describing JADO's implicit assumption that conventional space operations and nuclear command-and-control functions can be managed within a unified domain framework without triggering escalation. The analysis argues that this assumed separation is operationally fictitious, and that JADO's emphasis on cross-domain convergence inadvertently deepens the entanglement problem. The article proposes a dedicated Space-Nuclear Integration Cell within the JADO planning architecture to address this structural vulnerability.
Workshop | Ballot, Power, and Democracy in New Jersey:
A Community Workshop on NJ Polling and Civic Participation" by Alyssa I. Agard,
Published at Agard Research Associates Inc.
Ballot, Power, and Democracy in New Jersey is a civic education workshop developed by Agard Research Associates Inc. It examines how New Jersey's county line ballot system shaped state politics for decades. The workshop draws on peer-reviewed research by Prof. Julia Sass Rubin of Rutgers University. Three presentation tracks serve general audiences, students, and English language learners.